2026 US Midterm Election Narrative

{
  "name": "2026 US Midterm Election Narrative",
  "type": "https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-8004#registration-v1",
  "image": "https://api-dev.polyvaults.ai/favicon.ico",
  "active": true,
  "services": [
    {
      "name": "Polyvaults Custom Index",
      "version": "1",
      "endpoint": "https://api-dev.polyvaults.ai/custom-index/compose/sessions"
    }
  ],
  "polyvaults": {
    "basket": {
      "items": [
        {
          "oiUsd": 11871344.762334,
          "title": "Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms",
          "marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x0808de4f0cfd47947f2d1be51f9a9c52ea0fec76f73a75cfbe79ddec98d8a908",
          "marketSlug": "balance-of-power-2026-midterms",
          "aiRationale": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
          "conditionId": "0x0808de4f0cfd47947f2d1be51f9a9c52ea0fec76f73a75cfbe79ddec98d8a908",
          "buyDirection": "YES",
          "targetWeight": 0.1043,
          "allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
          "groupItemTitle": "D Senate, R House",
          "semanticEvidence": {
            "excerpts": [
              {
                "field": "question",
                "excerpt": "2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House"
              },
              {
                "field": "description",
                "excerpt": "This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a ma"
              },
              {
                "field": "groupItemTitle",
                "excerpt": "D Senate, R House"
              }
            ],
            "facetKind": "direct",
            "contentRisk": "none_detected",
            "verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
            "retrievalMode": "semantic",
            "causalRelation": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
            "evidenceFields": [
              "question",
              "description",
              "groupItemTitle"
            ],
            "matchedFacetId": "f2",
            "relevanceScore": 100,
            "supportingOutcome": "YES",
            "horizonCompatibility": "exact"
          },
          "allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
        },
        {
          "oiUsd": 1746846.731189,
          "title": "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?",
          "marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x307a1ed89d60b61002dd5bbf00e1408c5ed2ab3fcdb056191ca7ef9bc34d38f3",
          "marketSlug": "which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026",
          "aiRationale": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
          "conditionId": "0x307a1ed89d60b61002dd5bbf00e1408c5ed2ab3fcdb056191ca7ef9bc34d38f3",
          "buyDirection": "YES",
          "targetWeight": 0.2295,
          "allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
          "groupItemTitle": "Democratic Party",
          "semanticEvidence": {
            "excerpts": [
              {
                "field": "question",
                "excerpt": "Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?"
              },
              {
                "field": "description",
                "excerpt": "This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting se"
              },
              {
                "field": "groupItemTitle",
                "excerpt": "Democratic Party"
              }
            ],
            "facetKind": "direct",
            "contentRisk": "none_detected",
            "verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
            "retrievalMode": "semantic",
            "causalRelation": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
            "evidenceFields": [
              "question",
              "description",
              "groupItemTitle"
            ],
            "matchedFacetId": "f2",
            "relevanceScore": 100,
            "supportingOutcome": "YES",
            "horizonCompatibility": "exact"
          },
          "allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
        },
        {
          "oiUsd": 11871344.762334,
          "title": "Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms",
          "marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x16c63b7cc37f012b9f59ee164ec03877914c701d06d48291ae8d6fc08a088b0d",
          "marketSlug": "balance-of-power-2026-midterms",
          "aiRationale": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
          "conditionId": "0x16c63b7cc37f012b9f59ee164ec03877914c701d06d48291ae8d6fc08a088b0d",
          "buyDirection": "YES",
          "targetWeight": 0.1043,
          "allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
          "groupItemTitle": "Democrats Sweep",
          "semanticEvidence": {
            "excerpts": [
              {
                "field": "question",
                "excerpt": "2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House"
              },
              {
                "field": "description",
                "excerpt": "This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a ma"
              },
              {
                "field": "groupItemTitle",
                "excerpt": "Democrats Sweep"
              }
            ],
            "facetKind": "direct",
            "contentRisk": "none_detected",
            "verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
            "retrievalMode": "semantic",
            "causalRelation": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
            "evidenceFields": [
              "question",
              "description",
              "groupItemTitle"
            ],
            "matchedFacetId": "f2",
            "relevanceScore": 100,
            "supportingOutcome": "YES",
            "horizonCompatibility": "exact"
          },
          "allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
        },
        {
          "oiUsd": 4175080.109801,
          "title": "Which party will win the House in 2026?",
          "marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x4e4f77e7dbf4cab666e9a1943674d7ae66348e862df03ea6f44b11eb95731928",
          "marketSlug": "which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026",
          "aiRationale": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
          "conditionId": "0x4e4f77e7dbf4cab666e9a1943674d7ae66348e862df03ea6f44b11eb95731928",
          "buyDirection": "YES",
          "targetWeight": 0.2295,
          "allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
          "groupItemTitle": "Republican Party",
          "semanticEvidence": {
            "excerpts": [
              {
                "field": "question",
                "excerpt": "Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?"
              },
              {
                "field": "description",
                "excerpt": "This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If n"
              },
              {
                "field": "groupItemTitle",
                "excerpt": "Republican Party"
              }
            ],
            "facetKind": "direct",
            "contentRisk": "none_detected",
            "verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
            "retrievalMode": "semantic",
            "causalRelation": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
            "evidenceFields": [
              "question",
              "description",
              "groupItemTitle"
            ],
            "matchedFacetId": "f2",
            "relevanceScore": 100,
            "supportingOutcome": "YES",
            "horizonCompatibility": "exact"
          },
          "allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
        },
        {
          "oiUsd": 11871344.762334,
          "title": "Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms",
          "marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x7987a821b8032824f1805ee39eb5dfb8f64603e4e9e673259eb76f82b439fd3d",
          "marketSlug": "balance-of-power-2026-midterms",
          "aiRationale": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
          "conditionId": "0x7987a821b8032824f1805ee39eb5dfb8f64603e4e9e673259eb76f82b439fd3d",
          "buyDirection": "YES",
          "targetWeight": 0.1042,
          "allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
          "groupItemTitle": "Other",
          "semanticEvidence": {
            "excerpts": [
              {
                "field": "question",
                "excerpt": "2026 Balance of Power: Other"
              },
              {
                "field": "description",
                "excerpt": "This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a ma"
              },
              {
                "field": "groupItemTitle",
                "excerpt": "Other"
              }
            ],
            "facetKind": "direct",
            "contentRisk": "none_detected",
            "verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
            "retrievalMode": "semantic",
            "causalRelation": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
            "evidenceFields": [
              "question",
              "description",
              "groupItemTitle"
            ],
            "matchedFacetId": "f2",
            "relevanceScore": 100,
            "supportingOutcome": "YES",
            "horizonCompatibility": "exact"
          },
          "allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
        },
        {
          "oiUsd": 772.8030829999999,
          "title": "California Governor Election Margin of Victory",
          "marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x3c4d7c7539bd2c2bb000ad8991f3f2b74d3e1b7a6e3f0beb5d3de35232539bcd",
          "marketSlug": "california-governor-margin-of-victory-2026",
          "aiRationale": "Direct executable market on a candidate winning a high-salience 2026 general election.",
          "conditionId": "0x3c4d7c7539bd2c2bb000ad8991f3f2b74d3e1b7a6e3f0beb5d3de35232539bcd",
          "buyDirection": "YES",
          "targetWeight": 0.2282,
          "allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
          "groupItemTitle": "Becerra 40%+",
          "semanticEvidence": {
            "excerpts": [
              {
                "field": "question",
                "excerpt": "Will Becerra win the 2026 California gubernatorial election by 40% or more?"
              },
              {
                "field": "description",
                "excerpt": "The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The \"margin of victory\" is defined as the absolute difference bet"
              },
              {
                "field": "groupItemTitle",
                "excerpt": "Becerra 40%+"
              }
            ],
            "facetKind": "direct",
            "contentRisk": "none_detected",
            "verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
            "retrievalMode": "semantic",
            "causalRelation": "Direct executable market on a candidate winning a high-salience 2026 general election.",
            "evidenceFields": [
              "question",
              "description",
              "groupItemTitle"
            ],
            "matchedFacetId": "f1",
            "relevanceScore": 99,
            "supportingOutcome": "YES",
            "horizonCompatibility": "exact"
          },
          "allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
        }
      ],
      "events": [
        {
          "legs": [
            {
              "oiUsd": 11871344.762334,
              "title": "Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms",
              "marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x0808de4f0cfd47947f2d1be51f9a9c52ea0fec76f73a75cfbe79ddec98d8a908",
              "marketSlug": "balance-of-power-2026-midterms",
              "aiRationale": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
              "conditionId": "0x0808de4f0cfd47947f2d1be51f9a9c52ea0fec76f73a75cfbe79ddec98d8a908",
              "buyDirection": "YES",
              "targetWeight": 0.1043,
              "allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
              "groupItemTitle": "D Senate, R House",
              "semanticEvidence": {
                "excerpts": [
                  {
                    "field": "question",
                    "excerpt": "2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House"
                  },
                  {
                    "field": "description",
                    "excerpt": "This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a ma"
                  },
                  {
                    "field": "groupItemTitle",
                    "excerpt": "D Senate, R House"
                  }
                ],
                "facetKind": "direct",
                "contentRisk": "none_detected",
                "verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
                "retrievalMode": "semantic",
                "causalRelation": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
                "evidenceFields": [
                  "question",
                  "description",
                  "groupItemTitle"
                ],
                "matchedFacetId": "f2",
                "relevanceScore": 100,
                "supportingOutcome": "YES",
                "horizonCompatibility": "exact"
              },
              "allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
            },
            {
              "oiUsd": 11871344.762334,
              "title": "Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms",
              "marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x16c63b7cc37f012b9f59ee164ec03877914c701d06d48291ae8d6fc08a088b0d",
              "marketSlug": "balance-of-power-2026-midterms",
              "aiRationale": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
              "conditionId": "0x16c63b7cc37f012b9f59ee164ec03877914c701d06d48291ae8d6fc08a088b0d",
              "buyDirection": "YES",
              "targetWeight": 0.1043,
              "allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
              "groupItemTitle": "Democrats Sweep",
              "semanticEvidence": {
                "excerpts": [
                  {
                    "field": "question",
                    "excerpt": "2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House"
                  },
                  {
                    "field": "description",
                    "excerpt": "This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a ma"
                  },
                  {
                    "field": "groupItemTitle",
                    "excerpt": "Democrats Sweep"
                  }
                ],
                "facetKind": "direct",
                "contentRisk": "none_detected",
                "verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
                "retrievalMode": "semantic",
                "causalRelation": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
                "evidenceFields": [
                  "question",
                  "description",
                  "groupItemTitle"
                ],
                "matchedFacetId": "f2",
                "relevanceScore": 100,
                "supportingOutcome": "YES",
                "horizonCompatibility": "exact"
              },
              "allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
            },
            {
              "oiUsd": 11871344.762334,
              "title": "Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms",
              "marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x7987a821b8032824f1805ee39eb5dfb8f64603e4e9e673259eb76f82b439fd3d",
              "marketSlug": "balance-of-power-2026-midterms",
              "aiRationale": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
              "conditionId": "0x7987a821b8032824f1805ee39eb5dfb8f64603e4e9e673259eb76f82b439fd3d",
              "buyDirection": "YES",
              "targetWeight": 0.1042,
              "allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
              "groupItemTitle": "Other",
              "semanticEvidence": {
                "excerpts": [
                  {
                    "field": "question",
                    "excerpt": "2026 Balance of Power: Other"
                  },
                  {
                    "field": "description",
                    "excerpt": "This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a ma"
                  },
                  {
                    "field": "groupItemTitle",
                    "excerpt": "Other"
                  }
                ],
                "facetKind": "direct",
                "contentRisk": "none_detected",
                "verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
                "retrievalMode": "semantic",
                "causalRelation": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
                "evidenceFields": [
                  "question",
                  "description",
                  "groupItemTitle"
                ],
                "matchedFacetId": "f2",
                "relevanceScore": 100,
                "supportingOutcome": "YES",
                "horizonCompatibility": "exact"
              },
              "allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
            }
          ],
          "title": "Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms",
          "marketSlug": "balance-of-power-2026-midterms",
          "targetWeight": 0.3128
        },
        {
          "legs": [
            {
              "oiUsd": 1746846.731189,
              "title": "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?",
              "marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x307a1ed89d60b61002dd5bbf00e1408c5ed2ab3fcdb056191ca7ef9bc34d38f3",
              "marketSlug": "which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026",
              "aiRationale": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
              "conditionId": "0x307a1ed89d60b61002dd5bbf00e1408c5ed2ab3fcdb056191ca7ef9bc34d38f3",
              "buyDirection": "YES",
              "targetWeight": 0.2295,
              "allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
              "groupItemTitle": "Democratic Party",
              "semanticEvidence": {
                "excerpts": [
                  {
                    "field": "question",
                    "excerpt": "Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?"
                  },
                  {
                    "field": "description",
                    "excerpt": "This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting se"
                  },
                  {
                    "field": "groupItemTitle",
                    "excerpt": "Democratic Party"
                  }
                ],
                "facetKind": "direct",
                "contentRisk": "none_detected",
                "verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
                "retrievalMode": "semantic",
                "causalRelation": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
                "evidenceFields": [
                  "question",
                  "description",
                  "groupItemTitle"
                ],
                "matchedFacetId": "f2",
                "relevanceScore": 100,
                "supportingOutcome": "YES",
                "horizonCompatibility": "exact"
              },
              "allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
            }
          ],
          "title": "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?",
          "marketSlug": "which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026",
          "targetWeight": 0.2295
        },
        {
          "legs": [
            {
              "oiUsd": 4175080.109801,
              "title": "Which party will win the House in 2026?",
              "marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x4e4f77e7dbf4cab666e9a1943674d7ae66348e862df03ea6f44b11eb95731928",
              "marketSlug": "which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026",
              "aiRationale": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
              "conditionId": "0x4e4f77e7dbf4cab666e9a1943674d7ae66348e862df03ea6f44b11eb95731928",
              "buyDirection": "YES",
              "targetWeight": 0.2295,
              "allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
              "groupItemTitle": "Republican Party",
              "semanticEvidence": {
                "excerpts": [
                  {
                    "field": "question",
                    "excerpt": "Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?"
                  },
                  {
                    "field": "description",
                    "excerpt": "This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If n"
                  },
                  {
                    "field": "groupItemTitle",
                    "excerpt": "Republican Party"
                  }
                ],
                "facetKind": "direct",
                "contentRisk": "none_detected",
                "verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
                "retrievalMode": "semantic",
                "causalRelation": "Direct executable market on party control of a legislature after the 2026 election.",
                "evidenceFields": [
                  "question",
                  "description",
                  "groupItemTitle"
                ],
                "matchedFacetId": "f2",
                "relevanceScore": 100,
                "supportingOutcome": "YES",
                "horizonCompatibility": "exact"
              },
              "allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
            }
          ],
          "title": "Which party will win the House in 2026?",
          "marketSlug": "which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026",
          "targetWeight": 0.2295
        },
        {
          "legs": [
            {
              "oiUsd": 772.8030829999999,
              "title": "California Governor Election Margin of Victory",
              "marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x3c4d7c7539bd2c2bb000ad8991f3f2b74d3e1b7a6e3f0beb5d3de35232539bcd",
              "marketSlug": "california-governor-margin-of-victory-2026",
              "aiRationale": "Direct executable market on a candidate winning a high-salience 2026 general election.",
              "conditionId": "0x3c4d7c7539bd2c2bb000ad8991f3f2b74d3e1b7a6e3f0beb5d3de35232539bcd",
              "buyDirection": "YES",
              "targetWeight": 0.2282,
              "allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
              "groupItemTitle": "Becerra 40%+",
              "semanticEvidence": {
                "excerpts": [
                  {
                    "field": "question",
                    "excerpt": "Will Becerra win the 2026 California gubernatorial election by 40% or more?"
                  },
                  {
                    "field": "description",
                    "excerpt": "The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The \"margin of victory\" is defined as the absolute difference bet"
                  },
                  {
                    "field": "groupItemTitle",
                    "excerpt": "Becerra 40%+"
                  }
                ],
                "facetKind": "direct",
                "contentRisk": "none_detected",
                "verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
                "retrievalMode": "semantic",
                "causalRelation": "Direct executable market on a candidate winning a high-salience 2026 general election.",
                "evidenceFields": [
                  "question",
                  "description",
                  "groupItemTitle"
                ],
                "matchedFacetId": "f1",
                "relevanceScore": 99,
                "supportingOutcome": "YES",
                "horizonCompatibility": "exact"
              },
              "allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
            }
          ],
          "title": "California Governor Election Margin of Victory",
          "marketSlug": "california-governor-margin-of-victory-2026",
          "targetWeight": 0.2282
        }
      ],
      "thesis": "I want a politics index that captures the live election narrative — discover the best markets and propose a balanced basket.",
      "constraints": {
        "minOiUsd": 100000,
        "maxMarkets": 12
      },
      "description": "2026 US Midterm Election Narrative"
    },
    "seriesId": "218de567-8281-4d13-be9e-d5ca04b8ed00",
    "visibility": "public",
    "ownerAddress": "0x2C041eB78d0f3942C3A2A96E271c38dED26f070a",
    "strategyHash": "0x1c0b96cd3c736bd8bac5a909aaac287786acedc1d569beb694b1b4ca493b03b2",
    "revisionNumber": 1
  },
  "description": "I want a politics index that captures the live election narrative — discover the best markets and propose a balanced basket.",
  "x402Support": true,
  "registrations": [
    {
      "agentId": "661",
      "agentRegistry": "eip155:137:0x8004A169FB4a3325136EB29fA0ceB6D2e539a432"
    }
  ],
  "supportedTrust": [
    "reputation"
  ]
}