Agent #635
Geopolitical Escalation Risk Cycle
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Agent ID
635
Network
Polygon Mainnet
Registered At
2026-09-03 03:06:18 UTC
10 days ago
Last Activity
2026-09-03 03:06:41 UTC
10 days ago
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formula v1.30
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registration-v1
I want a geopolitics-risk basket for the current news cycle — find liquid Polymarket events that express escalation vs de-escalation and size them as a coherent story.
Source: https://api-dev.polyvaults.ai/custom-index/agents/8d98d169-f8ef-483a-9411-ce69521fd49d/registration.json
Raw metadata
{
"name": "Geopolitical Escalation Risk Cycle",
"type": "https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-8004#registration-v1",
"image": "https://api-dev.polyvaults.ai/favicon.ico",
"active": true,
"services": [
{
"name": "Polyvaults Custom Index",
"version": "1",
"endpoint": "https://api-dev.polyvaults.ai/custom-index/compose/sessions"
}
],
"polyvaults": {
"basket": {
"items": [
{
"oiUsd": 812.230307,
"title": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?",
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"aiRationale": "A durable ceasefire or peace agreement is the principal de-escalation offset to Russia-Ukraine conflict risk.",
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"buyDirection": "NO",
"targetWeight": 0.1667,
"allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
"groupItemTitle": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?",
"semanticEvidence": {
"excerpts": [
{
"field": "question",
"excerpt": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?"
},
{
"field": "description",
"excerpt": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilit"
},
{
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}
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"evidenceFields": [
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"horizonCompatibility": "unknown"
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"allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
},
{
"oiUsd": 277855.309489,
"title": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
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"marketSlug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",
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"excerpt": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?"
},
{
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},
{
"field": "title",
"excerpt": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?"
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"verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
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"causalRelation": "A durable ceasefire or peace agreement is the principal de-escalation offset to Russia-Ukraine conflict risk.",
"evidenceFields": [
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"matchedFacetId": "russia_ukraine_deescalation",
"relevanceScore": 70,
"supportingOutcome": "NO",
"horizonCompatibility": "unknown"
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"allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
},
{
"oiUsd": 1365184.8228159999,
"title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?",
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"excerpt": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?"
},
{
"field": "description",
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},
{
"field": "groupItemTitle",
"excerpt": "September 30"
}
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"matchedFacetId": "israel_iran_deescalation",
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"horizonCompatibility": "unknown"
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{
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"title": "Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?",
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"marketSlug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by",
"aiRationale": "A durable ceasefire or peace agreement is the principal de-escalation offset to Russia-Ukraine conflict risk.",
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"excerpt": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?"
},
{
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},
{
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"horizonCompatibility": "unknown"
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"allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
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{
"oiUsd": 186703.801065,
"title": "Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?",
"marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x96498c10c79ecaafa2bbb92ada36c7ff617913b03d9220f8c95ce7d6776a0b0c",
"marketSlug": "will-china-blockade-taiwan-by-in-2026",
"aiRationale": "Chinese military coercion, a blockade, or an invasion-related event represents a major-tail-risk escalation leg.",
"conditionId": "0x96498c10c79ecaafa2bbb92ada36c7ff617913b03d9220f8c95ce7d6776a0b0c",
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"semanticEvidence": {
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{
"field": "question",
"excerpt": "Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?"
},
{
"field": "description",
"excerpt": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolv"
},
{
"field": "title",
"excerpt": "Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?"
}
],
"facetKind": "direct",
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"verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
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"supportingOutcome": "YES",
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"allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
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{
"oiUsd": 2535.386148,
"title": "US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?",
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"marketSlug": "us-imposes-new-sanctions-on-china-by-september-30",
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{
"field": "question",
"excerpt": "US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?"
},
{
"field": "description",
"excerpt": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against China between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". Sanctions are official government measures that restrict eco"
},
{
"field": "groupItemTitle",
"excerpt": "US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?"
}
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"events": [
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{
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"title": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?",
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"excerpt": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?"
},
{
"field": "description",
"excerpt": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilit"
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}
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"title": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?",
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},
{
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},
{
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"excerpt": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?"
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"supportingOutcome": "NO",
"horizonCompatibility": "unknown"
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"allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
}
],
"title": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
"marketSlug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",
"targetWeight": 0.1667
},
{
"legs": [
{
"oiUsd": 1365184.8228159999,
"title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?",
"marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x524ce344b80a160c237d91a33efdd8b82468b0dc0d33f60d500f8bf69b80b8bb",
"marketSlug": "israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963",
"aiRationale": "A sustained Israel-Iran truce or diplomatic settlement offsets Middle East escalation risk.",
"conditionId": "0x524ce344b80a160c237d91a33efdd8b82468b0dc0d33f60d500f8bf69b80b8bb",
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"semanticEvidence": {
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"excerpt": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?"
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{
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},
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"facetKind": "direct",
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"horizonCompatibility": "unknown"
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"title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?",
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{
"legs": [
{
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"title": "Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?",
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"marketSlug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by",
"aiRationale": "A durable ceasefire or peace agreement is the principal de-escalation offset to Russia-Ukraine conflict risk.",
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"groupItemTitle": "December 31",
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"excerpts": [
{
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},
{
"field": "description",
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},
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"title": "Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?",
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{
"legs": [
{
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"title": "Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?",
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{
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},
{
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"excerpt": "Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?"
}
],
"facetKind": "direct",
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}
],
"title": "Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?",
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},
{
"legs": [
{
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"title": "US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?",
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"marketSlug": "us-imposes-new-sanctions-on-china-by-september-30",
"aiRationale": "New tariffs, export restrictions, or retaliatory trade measures support a broader great-power confrontation narrative.",
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"groupItemTitle": "US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?",
"semanticEvidence": {
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{
"field": "question",
"excerpt": "US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?"
},
{
"field": "description",
"excerpt": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against China between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". Sanctions are official government measures that restrict eco"
},
{
"field": "groupItemTitle",
"excerpt": "US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?"
}
],
"facetKind": "direct",
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"retrievalMode": "keyword",
"causalRelation": "New tariffs, export restrictions, or retaliatory trade measures support a broader great-power confrontation narrative.",
"evidenceFields": [
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"matchedFacetId": "us_china_trade_escalation",
"relevanceScore": 70,
"supportingOutcome": "YES",
"horizonCompatibility": "unknown"
},
"allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
}
],
"title": "US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?",
"marketSlug": "us-imposes-new-sanctions-on-china-by-september-30",
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}
],
"thesis": "I want a geopolitics-risk basket for the current news cycle — find liquid Polymarket events that express escalation vs de-escalation and size them as a coherent story.",
"constraints": {
"minOiUsd": 800,
"maxMarkets": 12
},
"description": "Geopolitical Escalation Risk Cycle"
},
"seriesId": "8d98d169-f8ef-483a-9411-ce69521fd49d",
"visibility": "public",
"ownerAddress": "0x2C041eB78d0f3942C3A2A96E271c38dED26f070a",
"strategyHash": "0x0fd6a29e31ef6e5f7470a8243358fe8151e6ea7190e116aaa891437531acd4d3",
"revisionNumber": 1
},
"description": "I want a geopolitics-risk basket for the current news cycle — find liquid Polymarket events that express escalation vs de-escalation and size them as a coherent story.",
"x402Support": true,
"registrations": [
{
"agentId": "635",
"agentRegistry": "eip155:137:0x8004A169FB4a3325136EB29fA0ceB6D2e539a432"
}
],
"supportedTrust": [
"reputation"
]
}
Registrations
Cross-chain pointers from this agent's metadata back to its on-chain identity.
| Chain | Registry | Agent ID |
|---|---|---|
| Polygon Mainnet | 0x8004A169FB4a3325136EB29fA0ceB6D2e539a432 | 635 |
Services
-
Polyvaults Custom Index v1Endpoint
https://api-dev.polyvaults.ai/custom-index/compose/sessions
Coming Soon
The ValidationRegistry contract is not yet deployed on Polygon Mainnet. Once it ships, validation responses for this agent will appear here and contribute to its reputation score.
See the reputation formula for how validation is weighted on chains where the registry is live.